Hawkins Real Estate Group Quarterly

This time of year is one where I like to look ahead to the coming months, trying to anticipate what we may expect in our world of ongoing political, geopolitical and economic hour by hour news feeds, if we subscribe. Being closer to 70 years old than I like toadmit sometimes, I have come to terms with not wanting to participate in so many distractions that are available to us. There areso many aspects of day to day living to be THANKFUL for and from all of us at the HawkinsRyerse Team, we hope your familyhas a joyous Thanksgiving weekend.

Much has been written and digested in the “wait and see what happens to the economy” mode of waiting for the first decline inBank Of Canada (BofC) monetary policy rate earlier this year. The first decline was June 5, the second July 24, the 3rd Sept 4with the next one being October 23. There has been a noticeable increase in sales of many market groups, however, the most notable increase has been to the number of available listings. The number of active listings in Canada are the highest they havebeen since 2008. With sale volume increasing slightly since Labour Day, the Days on Market (DOM) for the majority of propertiesare increasing as more listings come on the market. It is safe to assume, we are not going to see any dramatic changes inaverage sale prices until we transition from the current buyer’s market to at least a balanced market.

The Canadian Real Estate economy has experienced the two slowest years back to back since 2008. It was expected that interest rate declines would have a greater kick start to the economy than we have experienced. In August, the federal government changed the rules to allow first-time homebuyers to purchase a new build home with an insured mortgage and a 30-year amortization, up from 25 years. By Dec. 15, Ottawa will expand that rule to another tranche of buyers who are not first-timehomebuyers. Purchasers will be allowed to take out a 30-year insured mortgage for a new build if they plan to live in the unit themselves or are purchasing the unit for a close relative, such as a parent or child. It will definitely take some time for thesechanges to buyer qualification for homes will have on buying trends.

There are many possible opinions on why the entire economy is languishing. Employment is static, business closures are increasing, new business startups are at the lowest level since early 2020 plus the unknowns of what mortgage renewals in 2025 and 2026 will have on our market. Canadian interest rates are trending lower which is encouraging housing starts, improving consumer confidence, allowing business growth while providing household debt relief with reduced mortgage costs and consumer debt carrying costs. While it is highly expected there could be a 0.50% cut in late October, Bank of Canada is going to have to pivot from following the US Federal Reserve rate adjustments at the expense of the Canadian dollar which will have other economic repercussions.

The home demand for new household formation and families who are relocating to South Georgian Bay from somewhere else is increasing as the year advances. Sales volume is at the lowest level we have experienced in the past two years. We are monitoring and analyzing all aspects of the communities we serve in order to provide our clients with market updates. If there areany aspects of what we report or comment on that you would like to discuss, please feel free to connect with us at anytime.

Happy Thanksgiving to you, and to your family and friends.